Analysis: elimination of Qassem Soleimani by Trump, a third world war? Who are con and pro allies? Well done Mr. Trump!

Door San Daniel gepubliceerd in Verhalen en Poëzie

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Qassem Soleiman has been eliminated, not only eliminated but unrecognizably eliminated, he could only be identified by a piece of hand with his ring on it, then you can test that bit of DNA. You can say he was shot to bits. This was the man who was more powerful than the president of Iran and who triggered many illegal actions and was responsible for killing many thousands of innocent people. Not only Americans, but also a support of the Syrian president to butcher anyone who was against Assad.

 Not exactly a fine gentleman, a murderer who belongs in the list of Bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Certainly not a humane company to be in.

President Obama made the decision to eliminate Bin Laden and President Trump ordered Qassem Soleiman and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to be eliminated.

One of his last actions was to provoke the American embassy in Iraq, so military crossed the border, to kill Americans. It was 'promised' that every American would be beheaded. These are unmistakable threats, especially when one besieges an embassy.

He was also involved in the attack of the K-1 Air Base in 2019. The only reason that Trump then called back a retaliation bombing was that he did not want to kill civilians and that would have been almost impossible to prevent, given the location of the militia .

The US Department of Defense issued a statement that the US attack was being carried out "under the direction of the President" and stated that Soleimani had planned further attacks on US diplomats and military personnel and that the attacks on the US embassy in Baghdad, was only the beginning.

President Trump is a clear president, he knows that the Arab world only respects the "strong man's strategy." He also does not allow American citizens to be endangered, and he is quite right in feeling that way.

 

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Iran has been very  provocative for a long time, think of paralyzing half of the oil production of Saudi Arabia by taking it out by rockts, or the detention of tankers cruising the strait of Hornuz. Violating atomic agreements and refusing to allow inspections of nuclear weapons.

In all this, the West and especially America have been very cautious to avoid confrontations. Unfortunately, I myself have lived in Libya for 4 years and have had to flee for my life when white folk (it is automatically assumed that you are American or Christian) were executed in droves. (our uncle John Tidwell, may God have his soul,  was beheaded and my neighbors were set on fire in their car). My book 'The Libyan years' tries to be a rational approach to a primitive country that is being torn apart by tribal war and hatred of everything that is not Islamic by nature.

If you are going to besiege an embassy in another country with the promise that you will behead every person present inside, you have put on the very big pants and Iran has done just that. We then say: "Whoever bounces the ball can expect it back."

So the American home office knows who the enemies of the West are and have "tags" on those people. They know their customs and locations and can take them out if necessary.

Everyone in the free world says, "it's great that the Qassem Soleiman has been done away with." In the same breath, the do gooders say, "could it not have been solved differently?" 'No dear do gooders and opponents of Trump (the democrats) that could not have been solved otherwise. Non-action is seen as a weakness in the Arab world, and the provocations are then strengthened  in force to see what the limit is. Or should you just let the embassy staff have their throats cut like goats while being filmed and ridiculed in the act?

It may be clear, no normal thinking person would approve of that.

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So Trump decided to close the Soleimani chapter after it was established that "Soleimani's contributions to terror plots as far away as New Delhi (India) or from London to Syria and US bases were a fact. He looked him up, he was located and was terminated.

That is a blow to Iran and means a public slap in the face. They lose a great deal of decisiveness and a loss of face in the Arab world, which is still a few decades behind in terms of democratic processes and is guided by a book from the year 650 because the state and the church are one in that part of the world.

So Iran must swear retribution and burn American flags and immediately engage Israel with a fallacy to get the Arab world back in line. One can only say that they have not learned much from the action against their most powerful man. The West, read American technology, has a tag with satellites on whomever they want to track and can eliminate any potentially dangerous person.

They swear war as retribution, and that reminds me a bit of men with spears against tanks.

 

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'So how would it work if we were to examine the possibility of war?

Ayatollah Khamenei is now personally involved with the Security Council in Tehran to consider goals. Targets include US bases in Iraq and Syria and allies including Saudi Arabia and Israel and other Western countries and oil tankers.


Fighting could drag Russian and Turkish troops into Syria, and ally China as well, who has ships in the Gulf of Oman. That then would become a 'nice' axis of evil.

At their disposal is the world's 13th most powerful army, a large number of militia groups scattered throughout the Middle East, proxy forces such as Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels, and allies such as Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Targeted targets are probably US troops and military bases in Iraq and Syria, Israeli troops in the Golan Heights, tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia and of course punishment for European allies.

Although initial attacks are likely to be limited, they could announce a series of events involving Russian troops stationed in Syria defending an important Iranian ally in Bashar al-Assad, and Turkish troops fighting in the north of the country.

China has ships stationed in the Gulf of Oman and recently conducted a joint naval exercise with both Iran and Russia, creating the prospect that they could also get involved.

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Saudi Arabia is already embroiled in a conflict with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, and any escalation by Tehran would be answered with a response from Riyadh.

The Turkish strongman Recep Erdogan's forces are deployed in northern Syria and he is close to Russia and Iran and is also a member of NATO - making his actions unpredictable if a conflict escalates in the region.

The US, China, Russia and Israel all have nuclear weapons - of which at least three have the next-generation hypersonic rockets capable of breaking through all defense systems.

Israel is also armed with nuclear weapons and is a clear target for any Iranian attack, but Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF will not hesitate to defend themselves and have recently repulsed an Iran-supported Hezbollah force attack in Syria.

If Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, as it has often threatened to do in the past, a large number of world powers, including European countries that depend on oil flowing through the waterway, would have to defend their interests.

Ultimately, if the exchanges between these countries escalated far enough, it is conceivable but unlikely that it would end with a nuclear exchange - and destruction on a global scale.

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Per country:

Iran

The country has an army that is thought to have around half a million active soldiers, along with a population of around 82 million from which reserves can be drawn.

The army has an arsenal of ballistic missiles, tanks, attack helicopters, fast jets and gunboats.

Although Iranian troops are unlikely to be involved in the first battles, if the situation escalates, they can be dragged into a ground war with the US.

In the event that US forces are deployed in Iran itself, the country's greatest asset is its geography: surrounded on three sides by mountains, a fourth by ocean, and with an enormous desert in the middle, it is a formidable obstacle - even for the US Army.

There are a number of non-military actions that Iran could undertake within its own borders that would threaten the US, including stepping up its nuclear program.

The country has exceeded Uranium's stock limits and has been enriching them above energy levels since Trump broke off the negotiations, but could begin to enrich to arms level in response to the latest threat. If that has not already happened.

If such is the case, American warships, bombers and cruise missiles can be used to take out the facilities, because they had already prepared to do so in many plans in the past.

Cyber ​​attacks have also become an increasingly popular method of warfare and can be used by Iran, America and their allies to try to gain an early upper hand.

The objectives are probably Iranian nuclear installations - which in the past have been successfully targeted at the Stuxnet virus - communication equipment, radar, power networks and other important infrastructure.

To counter the threat from American drones, Iran could use anti-aircraft missiles to shoot them, just like in June last year.

Iranian missiles can also be sent to US warships around the Arabian Peninsula, including the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, but this would be an extreme option and probably only taken after a ground invasion.

China has also stationed ships in the Gulf of Oman and recently carried out joint exercises with Iran and Russia, possibly dragging them into a conflict at sea.

 

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IRAQ

There are currently around 5,000 US troops stationed around Iraq, with even more en route, all now targets for Shiite militias who have fought for Iran in the past - and in some cases directly with Soleimani.

The embassy in Baghdad, which has been the target of attacks in recent days, is likely to see renewed action, while military patrols and bases may be hit by ground forces and IEDs - Soleimani's favorite weapon against US forces during the 2003 invasion.
Rocket attacks of the kind that killed an American military contractor last week, causing the escalation that ended in Soleimani's death, are probably also part of the arsenal.

The Quds Force, which controlled Solemani for nearly two decades, orchestrated behind-the-scenes attacks and could be directly involved to avenge the death of their beloved leader.

In the past, questions have been raised as to whether Quds Forces operate independently of the regime in Tehran, raising the prospect of attacks, even if they are not directly ordered by Tehran.

SYRIA

Bashar al-Assad is a close ally of Iran and owes much of his regime's continued existence to the personal intervention of Soleimani, who helped him turn the tide of Syria's many years of civil war with Russia.

Although Assad is unlikely to be directly involved in fighting, he may be persuaded to turn a blind eye to pro-Iran militia attacks against hundreds of US troops and Kurds remaining in the country after Donald Trump ordered a withdrawal.

Iran has also spent time setting up its own military infrastructure in Iran, complete with missile bases that Israel has previously said could be used against its territory.

If Tehran decides to attack the Americans, that is likely to happen in the Golan Heights region, although Tel Aviv has warned that Iranian rockets can reach far beyond the borders.

If the fighting escalates here, Russian troops stationed throughout the country can quickly become embroiled, along with Turkish troops currently deployed in the north.

ISIS is also likely to exploit the situation to try to set the parties against each other, allowing them to reclaim the area they have lost in recent years.

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LEBANON

The country is ruled by Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy force that has sworn "worldwide resistance" after the death of Soleimani.

The group could launch missile attacks on targets in Israel, as well as anti-aircraft attacks on Israeli jets and drones operating in the region.

If Iranian forces in Syria decide to launch an attack on Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, Hezbollah can provide support.

Iran also exercises control over Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas, both of which operate in the Gaza Strip and can be used to cause further problems for Israel.

SAUDI ARABIA

Another important American ally in the region, Riyadh has seen attacks on its oil infrastructure in recent months attributed to Tehran.

Iran could choose to harass, eliminate or destroy oil tankers sailing in the Persian Gulf and separating it from the Arabian Peninsula, potentially disrupting an important source of income for the Saudis.

Tehran could also try a repeat of the bold attack that cut off the country's oil facilities in the summer, although safety was greatly increased afterwards, making success far from certain.

One of the most extreme options available to Iran would be to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off one-fifth of the world's daily oil reserves.

Although Tehran has often threatened to close the waterway, such a movement would almost certainly trigger a response from the US  in the region and drag in other world powers that rely on oil.
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YEMEN

Iran is fighting a proxy war in Yemen with the help of Houthi rebels, fighting Saudi forces affiliated with the ruling regime.

Attacks against the Saudis could increase, and Iran could use Houthi drones and guided missiles to launch attacks against pipelines in Saudi Arabia and other infrastructure as it did in the past.

AFGHANISTAN

The US has just reached a cease-fire agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan in an effort to end the longest war it has ever fought.

But just like in Iraq and Syria, Iran has ties with Shiite militias throughout the region, which could use it to derail the process and to plunge the region back into conflict, further expanding US involvement there.

QATAR

The country houses the largest US military base in the Middle East, on Al Udeid, where about 10,000 troops and dozens of hunters and bombers live, including F-22 hunters and B-52 bombers.

If a total war breaks out with Iran, Al Udeid will be at the center of efforts to establish air superiority, and as such an important target for Iran and its allies.

HOW THE USA CAN HIT BACK

The United States has a wide range of military hardware in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. Among the military options are F22 Raptor hunters based in Dubai, submarines with cruise missiles and Ohio class and aircraft carriers and US Special Forces that are still based in Northern Iraq and Syria.

Strategic means such as B2 Stealth bombers can also strike by flying over from the American mainland, and - in the ultimate case - America can also fire nuclear weapons from mainland silos from almost anywhere in the world.
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Tens of thousands of Russian troops and planes are based in Syria in support of the Bashar al-Assad regime. They include special forces and the dreaded S400 anti-aircraft missiles - the most advanced missile system in the world. If the conflict escalates, Russia may feel compelled to defend its ally or Iran or to take revenge if its troops are killed as additional US damage.

 It could also use strategic assets in Russia, such as long-range missiles and long-range bombers, along with ships and submarines in the Mediterranean in Sevastopol.

HOW ISRAEL CAN REPLY

If Israel is attacked by Iran, it will certainly take revenge. It has nuclear weapons and a range of advanced fighter jets that are capable of attacking Iran and Iranian forces in Syria, as it has done in the past.

The special forces are also among the most feared in the world and are stationed in the region.'

A turbulent year awaits us, just starting now, but again full of tensions caused by our 'friends' in Iran. Let us hope that people remain rational and that a war that will cost the lives of many millions will not be necessary. Mr Trump has given a clear answer to the terrorist regime of Iran, let's hope that his message was understood!
 
 
San Daniel 2020
 
references:
 

 

 

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05/01/2020 19:10

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